The aftermath of the February 28th retail boycott

February 2025

The title here is a type of pun on math   and how reporters spin the numbers to fit their agenda. It's a kind of nod to the idea lies, damn lies, and statistics.

Trying to make a boycott take off

On February 26, 2025, Betty Lin-Fisher, a consumer reporter at USA Today plugged the article she wrote for the outlet on LinkedIn thus:

This Friday, Feb. 28 is the one-day, 24-hour consumer economic blackout.

Consumers are encouraged not to spend money during the 24-hour period and if you need something, to buy local.
The Feb. 28 event is one of several boycotts planned by groups of consumers or activists to protest what they call corporate greed, companies that have rolled back their diversity, equity and inclusion efforts and President Donald Trump's efforts to eliminate federal DEI programs since taking office.

 The Boomerang Effect Shown on Social Media

The comments showed that not everyone agreed with this approach, with many declaring that they'd make a point of shopping that Friday. Some added additional commentary on why they thought this was wrong. 

For example, Kimberly wrote this: 

I will go to Target and look for products by black businesses and purchase some. I disagree with this whole thing as it could affect those that have nothing to do with it. Treat people on merit and qualifications not race. Last I saw we've had a black President, VP, police chiefs, mayor's, governors I could go on and on into infinity. You can be anything you want to
be. Only one standing in your way is yourself.And Jan wrote:We should agree to disagree and give the current administration 2 full years to show American just what they will do for us. I may not have liked prior Presidents but I never wished harm on our working people. After 2 years, THEN speak up and change things with the Mid-Terms. However, I believe we will see our economy turn around over the next 6 months and no one will want to change anything! It's only been 5-6 weeks...... Wish for the BEST for our Country! We the People have spoken with our votes

What does the data show?

Now that we're in early March, the numbers should be in to let us know if the boycott had any significant impact. So let's see what Betsy Lin-Fisher had to say in her follow-up  on the first day of what  was intended to be a one week "fast" from Amazon purchases and a full 40 day "fast" (the correspondence with Ramadan has to be deliberate, as Lent only began today -- Ash Wednesday) intended to harm Target and Walmart in USA Today. 

She was forced to admit that rather than dent Amazon sales, as compared to the previous eight Fridays, sales were actually up 1%, as per Momentum Commerce. It doesn't appear she's getting this information first-hand but relying on Forbes reports, and the headline it used about Amazon on March 2 was Amazon Defies ‘Economic Blackout’ As Sales Climb During Boycott.

Lin-Fisher was willing to concede Amazon so long as she could claim Target. Again, that's based on a Forbes report: Target Loses Web Traffic As Costco Gains On Feb. 28 Economic Blackout Day The implication her is supposed to be that Costco, which did not yet make a statement about dropping DEI, is being rewarded -- as per an increase of 22% in web traffic and 3% in app visits [not sales but visits] --while the other evil retailers are being duly punished by a drop in traffic.

Let's now set aside the question of whether or not Costco benefitted from the boycotters' position, which actually contradicts their stance of avoiding all big retailers and buying locally instead -- and take a closer look at Forbes' figures for Target and Walmart., and I want you to notice something. Hint: it's in the calendar page that I used as the illustration for this blog.   

• On blackout day, Target website visitors dropped 9% compared to Friday, Feb. 14, from 5.2 million to 4.7 million.
• Target app user traffic, representing the most loyal Target customers, was off even more, down 14%, from 4.2 million to 3.5 million.
• On blackout day, the nation’s number one retailer, Walmart, experienced a 5% slump in web traffic, down from 11.7 million on Feb. 14 to 11.2 million and number two Amazon dropped by 2%, from 67.1 million to 65.9 million.

Did you pick up on my hint? Why are we comparing the 28th to the 14th? Wouldn't it make much more sense to compare the 28th to the 21st -- the closest Friday to it and one in which there was no special occasion that prompted people to spend billions of dollars on gifts? 

The NRF predicted a record-breaking $27.5 billion in spending for Valentine's Day 2025

SEe the illustration above of the level fs spending  about the sales predicted for this year's Valentine's Day that would include spending on February 14th itself -- given the last minute habits of many consumers. They would have been able to shop online at retailers like Walmart and Target and still pick up in store to make sure they'd have the expected token of love ready. In fact, a good chunk of Valentine's Day shoppers do make their purchases online as you can see from the graphic below:

 

Deliberately taking February 14th as the baseline to "prove" a significant drop in shopping traffic at Target and Walmart on an ordinary Friday is the equivalent of weighing yourself just after a Thanksgiving dinner and then weighing yourself a few days later first thing in the morning before breakfast and claiming you lost five pounds. Anyone who tracks weight accurately would always tell you to weigh yourself at the same time of day each time for the sake of consistency with your baseline. 

This tactic is known as stacking the deck, one of the logical fallacies you should have learned about it in a rhetoric course. 

Related: 

Everybody lies with visualizations