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Wednesday, March 11, 2026

Don't be taken in by statistics




There's a certain group that started out as a marketing job placement service then turned into its own marketing agency that takes the best jobs for itself, and now draws on its membership to offer supposedly helpful presentations that promote a certain business that is likely paying for this form of content marketing to a live, albeit virtual, audience. One of these is scheduled for this week. This is the banner for it with the hosting organization cropped out.



If this organization that is not able to survive on recruiting fees any more wants to branch out into charging businesses for representation on their  platform, that's fine. But they should be transparent about sponsored content and not try to hoodwink people with bogus statistics that don't even fit the argument made for using AI in today's job market because those statistics are all rooted in a job market that predates this reality by years -- if the stat ever had any validity at all! 

I put in the highlights to make it clear why this irks me so much. If this were a student paper, I'd give it an F despite its mechanical correctness and superficial polish.

1. There is no citation for the source of the stat with what is actually considered a fairly large range of 70-85% that undermines credibility. If you did a real survey, you'd have a specific number and not have to hedge your bets this way. And if you can't tell me where you found this out and what the context of it what, I don't believe you at all. You could be making it up altogether or be sharing something that was based on a sample size of just 3000 jobs 10 years ago (as it turns out).* There's no way of knowing if this is current and truly relevant if you don't share that source.

2. The second stat, "up to 80% of jobs are secured before they’re ever publicly posted"**makes no sense at all. Yes, I'm sure that many jobs are destined to go to the founder's son, his neighbor's daughter, or his roommate from college because nepotism and cronyism still dominate the world. But once the job truly is secured, there is no reason to post it. It's like making a claim that most houses are sold before their open house. If an agent has the contract, she is not going to run the open house (despite the fact that open houses are about gaining potential buyer lists rather than selling that particular property) because admitting to people that the house is not for sale undermines her credibility.


3. The structure of this is meant to lead you on to point 1 and point 2 add up to 3. But it doesn't at all. It doesn't follow from any of this that AI gives you a leg up in job search. What does give you a leg up is being related to or friends with the people who are making the hiring decisions. No matter how amazing you are at AI, you'll be passed over for the manager's college pal or cousin.

The more you know, the less you trust

I asked the woman who posted this the source of her statistic. She answered a few days later:





The Openarc source is dated 2025. So you'd think the stats are current and should take into consideration how things changed during the pandemic and the incursion of generative AI. But you'd be wrong because Openarc is referencing a 2021 source https://www.thomasnet.com/insights/85-of-jobs-get-filled-through-networking-here-s-how-to-grow-your-professional-network/, and that 2021 source is citing a February 2016 LinkedIn Pulse survey inkedin.com/pulse/new-survey-reveals-85-all-jobs-filled-via-networking-lou-adler/ that relies primarily on 2015 data drawn from a survey of just 3000 people. Here's the graph it features: *


In other words, this woman is presenting herself -- or the man who is going to give the presentation to market his company -- as an expert by throwing out bogus stats. What was true 11 years ago could still be true now, but we don't know that. Certainly, the job market has changed drastically in that time.


Now let's look at herd source for the claim that 80% of jobs are secured before they're posted. It doesn't substantiate that at all. On the contrary, what the Fast Company article https://www.fastcompany.com/91209427/the-hidden-job-market-strategies-for-access-and-success says is: "There’s a common statistic floating around that claims nearly 80% of all jobs are filled through the hidden job market. The real statistics are unknown, but most believe that around half of roles end up being filled by organic connections."


The more you look into, the more she loses credibility. She's either deliberately misrepresenting 11 year-old stats as current and never established stats as valid or she doesn't even know enough to realize how absurd it is to rely on them in 2026.


This is ridiculously common among lazy, incompetent, and not altogether honest writers who provide outdated and even clearly unsubstantiated information. When I want to cite a stat, I always trace it to the original source to get the full context, as I wrote in Why you always need the original source.




 




Friday, February 27, 2026

AI vs. the greats: you be the judge

"I'm channeling Jane Austen" pen from Totally Jane Austen

There are many lists of the greatest opening lines in literature. I made a short one of my own for this exercise: How would AI render these lines?

The original greats

  1. "It is a truth universally acknowledged, that a single man in possession of a good fortune, must be in want of a wife." — Jane Austen, Pride and Prejudice

  2. "It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way -- in short, the period was so far like the present period, that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only." — Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities

  3. "Call me Ishmael." — Herman Melville. Moby-Dick

  4. "There was no possibility of taking a walk that day. We had been wandering, indeed, in the leafless shrubbery an hour in the morning; but since dinner (Mrs. Reed, when there was no company, dined early) the cold winter wind had brought with it clouds so sombre, and a rain so penetrating, that further out-door exercise was now out of the question.” – Charlotte Brontë, Jane Eyre

  5. All this happened, more or less.” – Kurt Vonnegut Slaughterhouse Five

  6. "It was a bright cold day in April, and the clocks were striking thirteen." — George Orwell.1984

Claude's take

First I asked Claude, and this was its response: Here are my reimaginings, each trying to capture the spirit while finding a fresh angle:


1. Pride and Prejudice "Every woman in a poor household knows that a wealthy bachelor nearby is less a blessing than a problem to be solved."

(Flips Austen's irony to center the women's perspective rather than society's assumption.)


2. A Tale of Two Cities "The age was a contradiction — so perfectly balanced between glory and ruin that historians would later argue for centuries about which it actually was."

(Distills Dickens's famous parallelism into a single, drier observation.)


3. Moby-Dick "My name doesn't matter. What matters is that I survived."

(Keeps the casual confession but shifts the weight from identity to fate — hinting at the survival that frames the whole novel.)


4. Jane Eyre "Winter had made prisoners of us all, and I was already more confined than most."

(Condenses Brontë's physical detail into something that immediately signals Jane's deeper captivity — social, emotional, familial.)


5. Slaughterhouse-Five "Most of it is true."

(Vonnegut's genius was compression. This out-Vonneguts Vonnegut.)


6. 1984 "The day was ordinary in every way except the one way that mattered."

(Replaces Orwell's specific wrongness — the clocks striking thirteen — with a creeping, unspecified dread, making the reader lean in rather than jolt.)

I won't comment on each of these, though have to say that I am very much amused by the hubris demonstrated by Claude in claiming it "out-Vonneguts Vonnegut" with its rendition and that what it did to Jane Austen's height of perfection should be considered a crime by anyone who cares about language and rhythm. 


Grok opted to modernize the lines

In my prompt to Grok I didn't dictate what direction to take with the lines. I merely prompted it with this question, "How would you revise these opening lines?"

Interestingly, it gave me a whole extended preamble before launching into it. Plus it justifies inserting an em dash in the revision while also using that punctuation quite a bit in its commentary on its changes.  I've copied the whole response except the final paragraphs asking about my intent below:

These are some of the most iconic and frequently celebrated opening lines (or opening paragraphs) in English literature. They appear near the top of almost every "best first lines" list compiled over the years (such as the American Book Review's influential 100 Best First Lines from Novels, and various literary rankings from Penguin, Forbes, and others).Your selection is excellent—it's already a strong, canonical sampling that captures irony, paradox, mystery, atmosphere, understatement, and dystopian unease. Revising them "better" is tricky because they are masterpieces precisely because of their original wording, rhythm, and historical context. Any change risks losing what makes them timeless.
That said, if the goal is to modernize, shorten, sharpen for contemporary readers, heighten impact, or adapt for a different tone/genre (e.g., social media, a parody, a retelling, or a punchier hook), here are some thoughtful revisions with explanations for each:
  1. Original (Austen): "It is a truth universally acknowledged, that a single man in possession of a good fortune, must be in want of a wife."Revised: "Everyone knows a rich single guy is desperate for a wife."
    • Why? Strips away the Regency-era formality and irony to make the sarcasm immediate and bite harder in modern English. It keeps the core joke but lands faster. (A very common paraphrase in pop culture.)
  2. Original (Dickens): "It was the best of times, it was the worst of times..." (the full long antithesis paragraph)Revised: "It was the best of times, it was the worst of times—wisdom and foolishness, belief and doubt, light and darkness, hope and despair. We had everything before us, nothing before us. In short, the era was so much like today that its loudest voices insisted it could only be described in extremes."
    • Why? Condenses the famous repetitive structure without losing the poetic parallelism or the sly comparison to "the present period." The original's length is part of its grandeur, but a tighter version can feel more urgent today.
  3. Original (Melville): "Call me Ishmael."Revised: "Call me Ishmael." (Honestly, almost untouchable.)
    • Why? It's perfect—three words that are mysterious, direct, and unforgettable. The only "revision" people sometimes joke about is adding context ("Call me Ishmael... before the white whale ruins everything"), but that defeats the point. Leave it alone.
  4. Original (Brontë): "There was no possibility of taking a walk that day. We had been wandering, indeed, in the leafless shrubbery an hour in the morning; but since dinner... further out-door exercise was now out of the question."Revised: "No chance of a walk today. We'd already trudged through the bare shrubbery that morning, but after dinner the bitter wind brought such dark clouds and driving rain that going outside again was unthinkable."
    • Why? Modernizes the language ("trudging" instead of "wandering," "bitter wind" for atmosphere) while preserving the gloomy, confined mood that foreshadows Jane's isolation. Shortens slightly for pace without losing the voice.
  5. Original (Vonnegut): "All this happened, more or less." Revised: "More or less, all of this actually happened."
    • Why? Flips the order slightly for a drier, more skeptical tone that aligns with Vonnegut's wry style. It keeps the casual dismissal of strict truth—perfect for a semi-autobiographical, time-jumping war story—but makes it feel even more offhand.
  6. Original (Orwell): "It was a bright cold day in April, and the clocks were striking thirteen."Revised: "A bright, cold April day—and the clocks struck thirteen."
    • Why? Tightens it for punchier rhythm while keeping the single, chilling detail that signals something is deeply wrong (military time + dystopia). The em dash adds a subtle dramatic pause.
Again, I won't comment on each of these but point out that the Austen line definitely is degraded in the revision and that the  flip of the order in the Vonnegut actually weakens the impact of the sentence.

ChatGPT's take

What fascinating is that while the other two generally tended to write to make their revisions more concise, ChatGPT seems to go in the opposite direction. It opted for more verbose sentences than the originals, acting rather in the manner of people who get paid by the word or students who are desperately trying to pad their essays to meet a minimum word count. That is most glaring in its rewrite of the opening of Moby Dick, adding on a completely extraneous phrase to its paraphrase, though it also does it for Vonnegut. That's quite a contrast to Claude's boast about its rewrite of that author's sentence.

I copied what it delivered exactly:

Here are creative rewrites of each opening, keeping the spirit but shifting voice, tone, or era.


1. Pride and PrejudicePride and Prejudice by Jane Austen

Original:
“It is a truth universally acknowledged…”

Rewrite:
Everyone knows—or at least everyone says—that a wealthy bachelor cannot possibly be content on his own.


2. A Tale of Two CitiesA Tale of Two Cities by Charles Dickens

Original:
“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times…”

Rewrite:
We lived in an age of dazzling promise and staggering ruin, of sharp minds and reckless folly, of fierce devotion and stubborn doubt. Hope bloomed even as despair took root. Everything seemed within reach, and yet nothing felt secure. Some swore we were ascending toward glory; others were certain we were rushing toward catastrophe. In many ways, it was an era disturbingly like our own—so extreme that it refused to be measured in anything but absolutes.


3. Moby-DickMoby-Dick by Herman Melville

Original:
“Call me Ishmael.”

Rewrite:
You may know me as Ishmael—at least, that will do for now.


4. Jane EyreJane Eyre by Charlotte Brontë

Original:
“There was no possibility of taking a walk that day…”

Rewrite:
A walk was quite impossible that afternoon. Though we had roamed the barren shrubs for a time that morning, the sky had since darkened into a heavy gray, and a thin, relentless rain rode in on the winter wind. With such weather pressing at the windows, any thought of venturing out was firmly dismissed.


5. Slaughterhouse-FiveSlaughterhouse-Five by Kurt Vonnegut

Original:
“All this happened, more or less.”

Rewrite:
Most of what follows occurred—give or take a few distortions.


6. 19841984 by George Orwell

Original:
“It was a bright cold day in April, and the clocks were striking thirteen.”

Rewrite:
The April air was sharp and sunlit, but something was off: every clock in sight had just chimed thirteen.


Not everything new is improved  

You know how brands sometimes introduce "New and Improved" versions of their products that actually make them worse? It doesn't have to be as blatant as New Coke was, just some loss of flavor or diminished texture. That's how the AI rewrites strike me. 

So there you have it: three different generative AI takes on some of the most memorable sentences ever penned in English. In this instance, I'd have to say that ChatGPT performed the worse -- unless your goal really is to add to your word count. If all you need to do is paraphrase something, that can work for you. But you definitely lose the impact of the rhythm and wording born of human skill and talent.

Related


Add a pinch of salt to creative claims for AI


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