The aftermath of the February 28th retail boycott

February 2025

The title here is a type of pun on math   and how reporters spin the numbers to fit their agenda. It's a kind of nod to the idea lies, damn lies, and statistics.

Trying to make a boycott take off

On February 26, 2025, Betty Lin-Fisher, a consumer reporter at USA Today plugged the article she wrote for the outlet on LinkedIn thus:

This Friday, Feb. 28 is the one-day, 24-hour consumer economic blackout.

Consumers are encouraged not to spend money during the 24-hour period and if you need something, to buy local.
The Feb. 28 event is one of several boycotts planned by groups of consumers or activists to protest what they call corporate greed, companies that have rolled back their diversity, equity and inclusion efforts and President Donald Trump's efforts to eliminate federal DEI programs since taking office.

 The Boomerang Effect Shown on Social Media

The comments showed that not everyone agreed with this approach, with many declaring that they'd make a point of shopping that Friday. Some added additional commentary on why they thought this was wrong. 

For example, Kimberly wrote this: 

I will go to Target and look for products by black businesses and purchase some. I disagree with this whole thing as it could affect those that have nothing to do with it. Treat people on merit and qualifications not race. Last I saw we've had a black President, VP, police chiefs, mayor's, governors I could go on and on into infinity. You can be anything you want to
be. Only one standing in your way is yourself.And Jan wrote:We should agree to disagree and give the current administration 2 full years to show American just what they will do for us. I may not have liked prior Presidents but I never wished harm on our working people. After 2 years, THEN speak up and change things with the Mid-Terms. However, I believe we will see our economy turn around over the next 6 months and no one will want to change anything! It's only been 5-6 weeks...... Wish for the BEST for our Country! We the People have spoken with our votes

What does the data show?

Now that we're in early March, the numbers should be in to let us know if the boycott had any significant impact. So let's see what Betsy Lin-Fisher had to say in her follow-up  on the first day of what  was intended to be a one week "fast" from Amazon purchases and a full 40 day "fast" (the correspondence with Ramadan has to be deliberate, as Lent only began today -- Ash Wednesday) intended to harm Target and Walmart in USA Today. 

She was forced to admit that rather than dent Amazon sales, as compared to the previous eight Fridays, sales were actually up 1%, as per Momentum Commerce. It doesn't appear she's getting this information first-hand but relying on Forbes reports, and the headline it used about Amazon on March 2 was Amazon Defies ‘Economic Blackout’ As Sales Climb During Boycott.

Lin-Fisher was willing to concede Amazon so long as she could claim Target. Again, that's based on a Forbes report: Target Loses Web Traffic As Costco Gains On Feb. 28 Economic Blackout Day The implication her is supposed to be that Costco, which did not yet make a statement about dropping DEI, is being rewarded -- as per an increase of 22% in web traffic and 3% in app visits [not sales but visits] --while the other evil retailers are being duly punished by a drop in traffic.

Let's now set aside the question of whether or not Costco benefitted from the boycotters' position, which actually contradicts their stance of avoiding all big retailers and buying locally instead -- and take a closer look at Forbes' figures for Target and Walmart., and I want you to notice something. Hint: it's in the calendar page that I used as the illustration for this blog.   

• On blackout day, Target website visitors dropped 9% compared to Friday, Feb. 14, from 5.2 million to 4.7 million.
• Target app user traffic, representing the most loyal Target customers, was off even more, down 14%, from 4.2 million to 3.5 million.
• On blackout day, the nation’s number one retailer, Walmart, experienced a 5% slump in web traffic, down from 11.7 million on Feb. 14 to 11.2 million and number two Amazon dropped by 2%, from 67.1 million to 65.9 million.

Did you pick up on my hint? Why are we comparing the 28th to the 14th? Wouldn't it make much more sense to compare the 28th to the 21st -- the closest Friday to it and one in which there was no special occasion that prompted people to spend billions of dollars on gifts? 

The NRF predicted a record-breaking $27.5 billion in spending for Valentine's Day 2025

SEe the illustration above of the level fs spending  about the sales predicted for this year's Valentine's Day that would include spending on February 14th itself -- given the last minute habits of many consumers. They would have been able to shop online at retailers like Walmart and Target and still pick up in store to make sure they'd have the expected token of love ready. In fact, a good chunk of Valentine's Day shoppers do make their purchases online as you can see from the graphic below:

 

Deliberately taking February 14th as the baseline to "prove" a significant drop in shopping traffic at Target and Walmart on an ordinary Friday is the equivalent of weighing yourself just after a Thanksgiving dinner and then weighing yourself a few days later first thing in the morning before breakfast and claiming you lost five pounds. Anyone who tracks weight accurately would always tell you to weigh yourself at the same time of day each time for the sake of consistency with your baseline. 

This tactic is known as stacking the deck, one of the logical fallacies you should have learned about it in a rhetoric course. 

Related: 

Everybody lies with visualizations

A is for Apple and APIs in the ABCs of BNPL

 Digital technology and integrations between banks, fintech, and retailers are not just changing the how but when of payments. As a result, the way consumers pay for their purchases includes an increasingly popular option called buy now, pay later (BNPL).

Taking out a loan for a purchase as small as $35, which is basically what BNPL is, would never have been considered in the past. It would have been far too cumbersome for both consumers and lenders. But thanks to the prevalence of application programming interfaces (APIs) in the financial industry, the process is now as easy and seamless as a credit or debit card transaction.

Nearly every major retail store and site now offers customers the option to pay with a BNPL. The players in that space already include the Swedish fintech Klarna, as well as the US-based Sezzle and Affirm. The name behind many store credit cards, Synchrony, also has its offering, and now even bank-branded credit cards like Citi and Chase, as well as Amex, give their customers the option to use BNPL.

The space is heating up even more with Apple’s announcement that it would offer its own BNPL called Apple Pay Later through a subsidiary of the company that has obtained lending licenses.

Use of BNPL has exploded, accounting for $100 billion in retail purchases in 2021, up from $24 billion in 2020, as reported in Fintech Times. The forecast for the market indicates that the trend is here to stay. The global market for BNPL is expected to hit $3.98 trillion by 2030 with a CAGR of over 45%, starting from 2021, according to Allied Market Research.

Read more in The Way We Buy Now: The ABCs of BNPL The title is a nod to Anthony Trollope and my immersion in Victorian lit back in the day.

How this year's Black Friday is different

We made it November, and now holiday marketing is in full swing already. In fact, many marketers didn’t even wait until after Halloween to get the season started. 

The attempt to push holiday marketing early happens every year, and so Black Friday has evolved and stretched to pretty much all of November over the past several years. Yet there were always some holdouts who would for the super deals on doorbuster specials available in stores only on the day itself. 

Recollecting Past Black Fridays

That phenomenon is what prompted my father-in-law to get up before dawn to  bring home two play kitchens for his grandchildren. I don’t recall what price he paid, only that he believed the savings to be worth the trouble. 

It goes beyond saving $20. He enjoyed the thrill of the frenzied excitement surrounding Black Friday sale events.

As the National Retail Foundation (NRF) reported last year, “Thanksgiving weekend draws nearly 190 million shoppers, spending up 16 percent.”  That year online shopping outstripped in store shopping: 142.2 million vs. 124 million. 

There were always some traditionalists who like to see what they buy in real life and who expect better deals in stores. That’s particularly true of those of older generations who are loath to order online ever. 

New for 2020

This year, though, likely the figures will shift to more online shopping and more shoppers making completing their purchases before the big weekend still referred to as Black Friday.  The challenge for retailers will be not to lose out on the sales that shoppers would come into stores for at a time when people are still skittish about crowds.

However, adapting to the reality of life under a pandemic when many stores were closed for months forced even a lot of the old-school shoppers to embrace the ease, convenience, and safety of online shopping.

That shift is going to reshape Black Friday 2020. Even if stores wanted to revert to the old model, the concerns about rising cases this season and the general advice not to pack a lot of people together means there is no concentrated shopping frenzy at most retailers.

Read more in This is Not Your Father’s Black Friday

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Not Your Parents' Back-to-School Marketing

pic from https://images.pexels.com/photos/207658/pexels-photo-207658.jpeg?cs=srgb&dl=back-to-school-conceptual-creativity-207658.jpg&fm=jpg

While the heat of summer draws us to the beach, marketing campaigns pull us in another

direction – back-to-school season. Yes, it’s that time of year again, and today’s marketing campaigns must work with the expectations of parents -- and students – to be successful.

The back to school shopping season is a big deal for retailers. The National Retail Federation (NRF) estimates the spending for back-to-school shopping to hit $82.8 billion this year. That’s one of the highest on record.

According to a recent JLL Retail survey, low costs and wide selection are important factors to the majority (70 percent) of parents. They favor stores associated with low prices, ranking Walmart (50 percent) and Target (47 percent) among their top picks, and far ahead of Amazon (16 percent). Kids have substantial influence on purchases. More than 57 percent are involved in deciding which store to shop at, and specific items to buy.

Read more in 

Back-to-School Marketing Trends: It's All About Gen Z

Retailers get into predictive analytics

Here on All Analytics, we’re generally sold on the value of predictive analytics. The question is: Are retailers, particularly those managed by people who believe in their gut intuition, sold on it? Even they are starting to appreciate what analytics can do for their business.

Dean Abbott

According to Dean Abbott, co-founder and chief data scientist at SmarterHQ and author ofApplied Predictive Analytics: Principles and Techniques for the Professional Data Analyst, it is ushering a cultural change for retail.

I recently chatted with Abbott about what the application of predictive analytics means to the retail space. Read more in 

Predictive Analytics: Data and Retail Expertise

Good data should not come at the cost of Goodwill

 https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a9/2008-08-04_CVS_Pharmacy_in_Durham.jpg

CVS recently ran an experiment that's generating a lot of buzz online. Unfortunately, it's not the kind of customer reaction retailer likes to get.

The drugstore giant chose the week of July 12 to deviate from its usual offer of special coupons or promotions in printed circulars. They were betting that what they gained in data insight for the week would be worth the price of alienating some customers.

- See more at: http://www.baselinemag.com/blogs/dont-sacrifice-goodwill-for-good-data.html#sthash.V3PGO2I9.dpuf

When efficiency, algorithms, and labor laws collide

Timeclock Wikipedia Commons

Flexibility is considered a virtue and an essential component an agile organization which can respond to changing needs in real-time. However, when that type of flexibility comes at the expense of employees, the company may not only be crossing the line of ethics but of law.

On April 10, New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman directed his office to send a letter (posted by the Wall Street Journal) to 13 major retailers.  What Gap Inc., Abercrombie & Fitch, J. Crew Group Inc., L. Brands, Burlington Coat Factory, TJX Companies, Urban Outfitters, Target Corp., Sears Holding Corp., Williams Sonoma Inc., Crocs, Ann Inc. and J.C. Penney Co. Inc were all asked were to account for questionable scheduling practices known as “on-call” shifts.

Read more in 

The Legal Limits for On-Call Shifts

The face of analytics is yours

Do personalized offers make you smile? Or do you value privacy over customized shopping experiences? Read about the facial recognition technology at work to sell you more stuff in

Putting a Face on Retail Analytics

Smartphone signals for retail analytics

Shopping online offers customers convenience and price transparency, but it offers retailers even more. As Amazon has demonstrated in its successful model, the information it derives from its customer behavior online gives it insight that it uses to tailor its marketing to the individual. As your online browsing tracks, not only what you buy, but what you considered buying, the retailer gets to learn a lot more about you than the person who rings up your purchase at a store. How can a bricks-and-mortar establishment compete with that kind of analytic edge?

 Read more in In-Store Customer Analytics Get Digital Twist

A fitting solution?

Analytics applied to the problem of finding clothes that fit: Does This Look Good on Me?
 my latest post on All Analytics.